Kalorama Information’s new report on U.S. long-term care, “The Long Term Care Market: Nursing Homes, Home Care, Hospice Care, and Assisted Living,” finds that growth will be fueled by the diversity of services that can be offered. The industry will near the half-trillion dollar mark in the next five years, growing even with cautious payor activities. Plus, the market research report says, the market exerts an influence on other markets — healthcare provision, devices, and pharmaceuticals. And there’s plenty of room for competitors.
The long-term care market is a complex and diverse industry that is evolving yearly. The growth trend is clear and not surprising. The U.S. long-term care industry has experienced steady growth from 2016 through 2018, and this is expected to continue through the forecast period. Aging of the population will increase demand for all forms of long-term care, although ongoing cost containment will continue to pressure the industry. As the demographics of the U.S. population have changed, so have the attitudes toward long-term care. The long-term care industry has met the challenges of the changing industry by diversifying offerings and increasing specialized care.
“There are more than 300 of these providers but only a handful have any significant market share. And the market not covered by top competitors is sizable, so expect new entrants,” said Bruce Carlson, publisher of Kalorama Information, now a part of BioInformatics Inc.
Yet because of the local nature of healthcare services, the scattered demand across the United States, and the variety of established players, there is no one leader in the market yet. Some brands do ring in consumer minds. In revenue terms, Kindred Healthcare led the overall market — and even this significant and diverse competitor’s $5.5 billion in revenues amounts to less than 2% share. Thus, share calculation in this market is impractical. Competitive companies include Genesis HealthCare, Brookdale, Life Care Centers, Golden Living, and Extendicare; others will expand with acquisitions of more large players to pose a greater threat to the leaders.
Baby boomers accounted for approximately 67 million individuals in the United States in 2018, and this enormous group is making decisions about whether senior living is the right option for aging loved ones and themselves.
The industry is growing. Through 2018, the industry overall experienced solid expansion, growing by 4% per year, on average, to reach $344.9 billion. The strongest growth occurred in the home care segment.
Through the forecast period, these trends will continue, with total annual industry growth of 5.1% per year, resulting in overall revenues of $441.7 billion in 2023. Growth will remain steady in all sectors even as reimbursement pressures continue to affect revenues.
The report says the evolution and specialization of residential, community-based, and home healthcare services will continue. The aging of the population, rising rates of chronic disease, longer life expectancies, and advances in public health and medical technology will result in unprecedented numbers of people requiring long-term care services in the near future — even as a shortage of healthcare personnel is occurring. The healthcare industry must begin to work now to reduce the fragmentation that exists both in the continuum of long-term care services and in the system of payment for those services.
About Kalorama Information
Kalorama Information, a division of BioInformatics Inc., supplies the latest in independent medical market research in diagnostics, biotech, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and healthcare; as well as a full range of custom research services. Reports can be purchased through Kalorama’s website.