At $28 Billion, Molecular Diagnostics Revenues Even Surprised Us, Says IVD Market Research Firm

The market for DNA-based tests used for clinical diagnostic purposes has exceeded previous forecasting according to Kalorama Information, a part of Science and Medicine Group. Kalorama has covered molecular diagnostics for two decades. Mid 2019, Kalorama Information’s report projected the market size (all DNA-based tests, revenues to IVD companies) would reach 10.1 billion in 2021. Kalorama now projects that market to be $28.6 billion dollars in 2021, based on financial reporting and current disease trending.

The finding was made in its latest report, The Worldwide Market for Molecular Diagnostics 10th Edition.

“Ten billion seems like a small forecast now,” said Bruce Carlson, Publisher for Kalorama. “We also estimated cancer would be the driver. Maybe antibiotics control. There was no way to anticipate what was coming.”

The reason is not surprising, says the IVD market research firm. Tests for the detection and severity of COVID-19 that continue to show high volumes in 2021.

The overall market market includes all tests for molecular targets conducted by PCR, other NAAT systems, as well as in situ hybridization and next generation sequencing that are used for a diagnostics purpose. The market figure represents revenues earned by IVD companies selling test products, instruments, reagents and directly related supplies. Roche, Abbott, Cepheid, biomerieux, Bio-Rad, Qiagen, Quidel compete in this market, as do hundreds of other companies.

Infectious disease is driving the revenues, as are cancer, and transplant diagnostics. A detailed analysis of each of these application segments is presented in the report. Almost two-thirds of that market value is anticipated to be molecular tests for COVID-19. The report, The Worldwide Market for Molecular Diagnostics 10th Edition, breaks out each segment in detail.

Infectious disease testing segments are driven by the COVID-19 crisis, both for direct testing of infectious diseases, “rule out” tests for flu and other conditions, and related tests such as microbiology and sepsis markers. However, non-infectious testing cannot be held off forever and later in the year cancer and transplant tests will join in driving revenues. The demand will come from advanced markets such as North America and Europe.

Kalorama notes that its previous estimate of 10 BN is still important to note. If COVID-19 testing is reduced or eliminated in the future, the ten billion dollar number represents a better “norm” baseline in molecular testing. Even if COVID declines, there are emerging diseases that will require detection testing in the future.

“Regardless of what happens with COVID-19, instruments have been installed and they will be used, and there are consumer expectations now,” said Carlson. “You have laypeople out there asking for ‘the PCR test’ now. Could you imagine that 5 years ago?”

About Kalorama Information:
Kalorama Information, part of Science and Medicine Group, is the leading publisher of market research in healthcare areas, including in vitro diagnostics (IVD), biotechnology, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. Science and Medicine Group supports companies seeking to commercialize the rapidly changing marketplace at the intersection of science, medicine, and technology. Comprised of industry-leading brands, Science and Medicine Group serves analytical instrument, life science, imaging, and clinical diagnostic companies by helping them create strategies and products to win markets and provide platforms to digitally engage their markets through a variety of innovative solutions. Kalorama Information produces 30 reports a year. The firm offers a Knowledge Center, which provides access to all published reports.