Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
WHAT ARE PIPELINE DISRUPTORS?
Gilead Sciences Disrupts HCV Market
Figure 1-1: Gilead Sciences Dominates HCV Market, Displaces Current Therapies ($ millions)
Bristol-Myers Squibb – Opdivo Disrupts Monoclonal Antibody Performance in Cancer
Figure 1-2: Monoclonal Antibodies in Cancer Treatment, Opdivo Performance vs. Industry, 2010-2022
SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
MARKET OUTLOOK
Figure 1-3: Projected Opportunities in Six Major Biopharmaceutical Specialties, 2010-2022
CHAPTER 2: THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL BIOPHARMACEUTICAL MARKET
TARGET SELECTION PROCESS INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE
TOP R&D SPENDERS
Table 2-1: Top R&D Spenders in the Pharmaceutical Industry – 2014-2016, (millions of $)
Figure 2-1: Top R&D Spenders in the Pharmaceutical Industry, 2016 ($ millions)
MAJOR SEGMENT BREAKTHROUGHS
Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs)
Figure 2-2: Monoclonal Antibody Market Penetration, All Indications (percent of total biopharmaceutical market)
Kinase Inhibitors
Figure 2-3: Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Market Penetration, All Indications (percent of total biopharmaceutical market)
INDUSTRY TRENDS
Healthcare Spending
Table 2-2: Total Healthcare Expenditures as a Percent of GDP by Country 2010 and 2015
GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND THE NEED FOR EFFECTIVE THERAPIES
Table 2-3: Global Population will Increase to Nearly 9.4 billion by 2050 (population in millions) 1980-2050
Figure 2-4: The Global Population, 1980-2050 (in millions)
Aging Population
Figure 2-5: Global Population Trend, Age 65+ (thousands)
CHAPTER 3: COMPANY INNOVATION STRATEGIES
STRATEGIES: THE PATH TO PIPELINE DISRUPTOR INNOVATION
AbbVie’s Growth Strategy
Allergan’s Growth Strategy
Astellas’ Growth Strategy
AstraZeneca’s Growth Strategy
Bayer’s Growth Strategy
Boehringer Ingelheim’s Growth Strategy
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Growth Strategy
Celgene’s Growth Strategy
Eli Lilly & Company’s Growth Strategy
Gilead Sciences’ Growth Strategy
GlaxoSmithKline’s Growth Strategy
Johnson & Johnson’s Growth Strategy
Novartis’ Growth Strategy
Pfizer’s Growth Strategy
Roche’s Growth Strategy
Teva Pharmaceuticals’ Growth Strategy
CHAPTER 4: PIPELINE DISRUPTORS: ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Figure 4-1: Global Incidence and Prevalence of Alzheimer’s Disease by Country, 2016 estimates
TREATMENT OPTIONS IN ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE: CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE
Aricept (donepezil)
Exelon (rivastigmine)
Namenda/Namzaric (memantine)
Razadyne (galantamine)
Figure 4-2: Alzheimer’s Disease Market by Drug Type ($ millions)
INNOVATION PIPELINE
Table 4-1: AstraZeneca/Eli Lilly – Lanabecestat (AZD3293/LY3314814)
Table 4-2: Biogen/Neurimmune – Aducanumab
Table 4-3: Biogen/Eisai – E2609
Table 4-4: Roche – RG1450 (gantenerumab)
Table 4-5: Roche – RG7412 (crenezumab)
Table 4-6: Takeda – AD-4833/TOMM40
MARKET IMPACT FORECAST
Figure 4-3: Monoclonal Antibodies and BACE Inhibitors will Drive Alzheimer’s Disease Treatment Growth, 2016-2022 ($ millions)
Figure 4-4: Roche and Biogen Expected to Dominate Alzheimer’s Treatment Market in 2022 (% market share)
CHAPTER 5: PIPELINE DISRUPTORS: ASTHMA
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Figure 5-1: China and U.S. at Top of List for Asthma Prevalence, 2016 estimates
THE HEAVY HITTERS IN ASTHMA TREATMENT: CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE
Pulmicort (budesonide)
Seretide/Advair (fluticasone/salmeterol)
Spiriva (tiotropium bromide)
Symbicort (budesonide/formoterol)
Ventolin (albuterol)
Xolair (omalizumab)
Table 5-1: Leading Asthma Product Sales (Global), 2016 ($ in millions)
Figure 5-2: Asthma Market Shows Corticosteroids Treatment of Choice, Sales by Drug Type 2010-2016 ($ millions)
INNOVATION PIPELINE
Table 5-2: AstraZeneca – Tralokinumab
Table 5-3: AstraZeneca – Benralizumab
Table 5-4: Novartis – QVM149
Table 5-5: Novartis – Fevipiprant
Table 5-6: Novartis – QMF149
MARKET IMPACT FORECAST
Figure 5-3: Combination Treatments Expected to Revive Asthma Treatment Market, Product Growth by Segment 2016-2022 ($ millions)
Figure 5-4: Novartis will Surge Ahead in Asthma Treatment Market by 2022 (% market share)
CHAPTER 6: PIPELINE DISRUPTORS: BREAST CANCER
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Table 6-1: Most Common Cancer by Incidence, by Region and Gender
Figure 6-1-: Global Incidence and Mortality of Breast Cancer by Country, 2012*
THE HEAVY HITTERS IN BREAST CANCER TREATMENT: CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE
Abraxane (paclitaxel)
Afinitor (everolimus)
Avastin (bevacizumab)
Herceptin (trastuzumab)
Ibrance (palbociclib)
Perjeta (pertuzumab)
Table 6-2: Leading Breast Cancer Product Sales (Global), 2016 ($ in millions)
Figure 6-2: Breast Cancer Market Driven by Monoclonal Antibodies, Market by Drug Type 2010-2016 ($ millions)
INNOVATION PIPELINE
Table 6-3: Novartis – Alpelisib
Table 6-4: Novartis – Kisqali (ribociclib)
Table 6-5: Pfizer – Trastuzumab
Table 6-6: Roche – Taselisib
MARKET IMPACT FORECAST
Figure 6-3: 2 Leading Product Segments in Breast Cancer Treatment, 2016-2022 ($ millions)
Figure 6-4: A New Market Leader Will Emerge in 2022 (% market share)
CHAPTER 7: PIPELINE DISRUPTORS: LEUKEMIA
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Table 7-1: Leukemia Overview by Type
Figure 7-1: Distribution of Leukemia Cases by Type
Figure 7-2: Global Incidence and Mortality of Leukemia by Country, 2012*
THE HEAVY HITTERS IN LEUKEMIA TREATMENT: CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE
Gleevec/Glivec (imatinib)
Imbruvica (ibrutinib)
Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab)
Sprycel (dasatinib)
Tasigna (nilotinib)
Table 7-2: Leading Leukemia Product Sales (Global), 2016 ($ in millions)
Figure 7-3: Leukemia Market Driven by Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors, Market for Leukemia Treatment by Drug Type, 2010-2016 ($ millions)
INNOVATION PIPELINE
Table 7-3: AstraZeneca – Acalabrutinib
Table 7-4: Celgene – Enasidenib
Table 7-5:
Daiichi Sankyo – Quizartinib
Table 7-6: Novartis – CTL019
Table 7-7: Novartis – GP2013 (rituximab)
Table 7-8: Novartis – Midostaurin
Table 7-9:
Pfizer – Besponsa (inotuzumab ozogamicin)
Table 7-10:
Roche – RG7388 (idasanutlin)
MARKET IMPACT FORECAST
Figure 7-4: Leukemia Treatment Product Growth ($ millions)
Figure 7-5: Novartis will Maintain Leading Position in Leukemia Treatment Market Through 2022 (% market share)
CHAPTER 8: PIPELINE DISRUPTORS: LUNG CANCER
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Table 8-1: Types of Primary Lung Cancer
Table 8-2: Most Common Cancer by Incidence, by Region and Gender
Figure 8-1: Global Incidence and Mortality of Lung Cancer by Country, 2012*
THE HEAVY HITTERS IN LUNG CANCER TREATMENT: CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE
Abraxane (paclitaxel)
Alimta (pemetrexed)
Avastin (bevacizumab)
Opdivo (nivolumab)
Tarceva (erlotinib)
Table 8-3:
Leading Lung Cancer Product Sales (Global), 2016 ($ in millions)
Figure 8-2: Lung Cancer Market by Drug Type ($ millions)
INNOVATION PIPELINE
Table 8-4:
Boehringer Ingelheim – BI 695502
Table 8-5:
Novartis – INC280
Table 8-6:
Pfizer – PF-06439535
Table 8-7:
Roche – Alecansa
MARKET IMPACT FORECAST
Figure 8-3: Lung Cancer Treatment Product Growth, 2016-2022 ($ millions)
Figure 8-4: Eli Lilly Slips, Who Gains in 2022? (% market share)
CHAPTER 9: PIPELINE DISRUPTORS: LYMPHOMA
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
Table 9-1:
Classification of Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphomas
Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
Figure 9-1: Global Incidence and Mortality of Lymphoma by Country, 2012*
THE HEAVY HITTERS IN LYMPHOMA TREATMENT: CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE
Alimta (pemetrexed)
Imbruvica (ibrutinib)
Opdivo (nivolumab)
Revlimid (lenalidomide)
Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab)
Velcade (bortezomib)
Table 9-2:
Leading Lymphoma Product Sales (Global), 2016 ($ in millions)
Figure 9-2: Lymphoma Market by Drug Type ($ millions)
INNOVATION PIPELINE
Table 9-3:
Bayer – Copanlisib
Table 9-4:
Novartis – CP2013 (rituximab)
Table 9-5:
Pfizer – PF-05280586
MARKET IMPACT FORECAST
Figure 9-3: Lymphoma Treatment Product Growth, 2016-2022 ($ millions)
Figure 9-4: Bayer’s Lymphoma Candidate and Potential in the Market (% market share)
CHAPTER 10: MARKET CONCLUSIONS
AGE-DRIVEN GROWTH – FEELING THE TRUE IMPACT
KEY CHRONIC DISEASES THAT WILL AFFECT MARKETS
WATCH COMBINATION THERAPIES
OUTCOMES-BASED REIMBURSEMENT CHANGES GAME
DISEASE-MODIFYING THERAPIES FOR ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE
THE COST OF DEVELOPING NEW TARGETS IS INCREASING AND THE RISK OF FAILED DEVELOPMENT IS A REAL THREAT TO NEW INNOVATION
BIOSIMILAR DEVELOPMENT WILL CUT INTO SALES FOR ORIGINAL THERAPIES
