As Flu Outpaces COVID This Winter, Rapid Molecular Testing Takes on New Importance

This winter’s respiratory season looks different from what many expected. Flu has once again pulled ahead of COVID in infections and hospitalizations, and the two illnesses are starting to resemble each other in how severe they can be. For healthcare providers who rely on fast decisions at the point-of-care, this shift is not a small detail. When symptoms overlap and waiting rooms fill up, having quick and accurate answers can make the difference between starting antivirals on time, avoiding unnecessary antibiotics, and reassuring patients with confidence.

These are exactly the kinds of trends Kalorama Information has been tracking closely. Our new report, Molecular Point-of-Care (mPOC) Market Outlook and Innovations, 11th Edition (2025 to 2030), offers a detailed look at how the market is responding.

A Clinical Picture That Makes Combo Testing Essential

Flu and COVID now look so similar that symptoms alone cannot reliably distinguish them. Testing is the only dependable way to figure out which virus is responsible, and that need has pushed multiplex molecular panels into the spotlight. These panels detect SARS CoV 2, Flu A and B, and often RSV, making them especially useful in urgent care centers, retail clinics, emergency departments, and physician offices.

Justin Saeks, senior Kalorama Information analyst and lead researcher for the new mPOC report, sees this trend clearly. He notes that flu has moved back to center stage while COVID continues in the background, which puts more pressure on providers to use tools that can sort these infections quickly. He adds that rapid molecular combo panels are the practical solution when both speed and accuracy are needed. The reason is simple. Antivirals for flu work best when started quickly, and patients do not always return for follow ups. Providers need those answers during the visit, not days later.

Kalorama defines true molecular point-of-care systems as small, portable devices that run PCR or other nucleic acid tests with little sample preparation and turnaround times fast enough for the visit. Most use cartridges and are built for use outside centralized labs. Their biggest advantage is sensitivity. Molecular tests consistently outperform rapid antigen tests for influenza, which reduces false negatives and helps ensure patients get the right treatment.

Where the U.S. Market Stands Now

The United States remains the largest IVD market in the world and a driving force behind the adoption of point-of-care technologies. In 2025 the U.S. made up approximately 41% of the global IVD market, which totaled about $113 billion. Within that enormous landscape, molecular point-of-care testing stands out for its resilience and growth.

Kalorama’s new edition estimates the global true mPOC market at about $2 billion in 2025, with North America making up more than half of that. We forecast strong growth ahead, with a high single digit compound annual growth rate expected through 2030.

According to Saeks, the U.S. already has the right mix of scale and care settings to make molecular point-of-care testing a routine part of clinical practice. He expects momentum to continue over the next several years as more providers adopt these systems and as manufacturers improve both economics and throughput.

A Difficult Flu Season Adds New Urgency

Recent reporting from The Washington Post, including a March 4, 2026 article titled “Flu was again worse than COVID this winter. Is that pattern here to stay?”, highlights that influenza has once again overtaken COVID across several key indicators. The two illnesses are also becoming more similar in terms of severity, further complicating the clinical picture. When patients present with overlapping symptoms, healthcare providers must first determine which infection is responsible before initiating appropriate treatment.

Guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reinforces this point. Symptoms alone cannot reliably separate flu from COVID, and early treatment requires a confirmed diagnosis. This is exactly where molecular combination tests offer the most value. They shorten the time between arrival and the start of the appropriate therapy.

Why mPOC Is Positioned to Grow (and What Could Slow It Down)

Speed and accuracy. True mPOC systems typically deliver results in 15 to 90 minutes depending on the number of samples waiting. This is ideal for onsite decision making in urgent care, pharmacy clinics, and other high access settings. Their accuracy, especially for flu, is significantly better than rapid antigen tests.

A larger installed base. The COVID pandemic dramatically expanded the number of molecular instruments outside core laboratories. As more combination respiratory tests became routine, the same instruments began running additional panels for sexually transmitted infections, hospital acquired infections, and gastrointestinal pathogens.

Epidemiology. A heavy flu season and reports of early surges only increase the value of fast and accurate testing. Molecular combo panels help providers separate illnesses in real time when the clinical presentation is unclear.

There are still challenges. The cost per test can be a hurdle for high volume clinics. Throughput is another issue. Even with fast turnaround per cartridge, a queue of samples can build quickly during peak hours, making it harder to deliver fast results. Lower cost immunoassays remain important for screening large groups, and many clinics continue to use a hybrid strategy that reserves molecular testing for situations where the result changes the clinical plan.

Practical Takeaways for U.S. Stakeholders

Provider networks and retail clinics. Tailor testing strategies to the current season. Use molecular combo panels when results drive treatment decisions and use antigen tests for overflow, with molecular reflex testing for cases where symptoms do not match the initial result.

Manufacturers. Focus on lowering cost per test and creating pricing models that help clinics manage expenses during high volume periods. Improving throughput on compact systems will also be important. The competitive landscape continues to favor companies with strong respiratory and STI cartridge ecosystems, but there is room for innovators with better economics.

Payers. Continue supporting coverage for molecular combo panels during high activity seasons. Early accurate testing reduces unnecessary visits, imaging, and inappropriate antibiotic use.

How It All Fits into the Broader U.S. IVD Picture

Kalorama’s analysis shows that the U.S. IVD market is stable overall, with growth coming from improvements in access, workflow, and clinical usefulness. Molecular point-of-care systems naturally support these goals by bringing testing closer to patients and reducing delays. Looking ahead, progress in this space is less about dramatic disruption and more about strong, consistent execution in areas that matter most, such as respiratory care during peak seasons.

For More Information

If you are interested in learning more about the domestic and global molecular point‑of‑care market, or in purchasing Molecular Point‑of‑Care (mPOC) Market Outlook and Innovations, 11th Edition (2025–2030), click here.