Molecular Diagnostics Market to Reach 28 Billion. We Didn’t Predict That Two Years Ago.

The market for DNA-based tests used for clinical diagnostic purposes has exceeded previous forecasting, due to the COVID-19 crisis. Mid 2019, Kalorama Information’s report projected the market size (all DNA-based tests, revenues to IVD companies) would reach 10.1 billion.  We also estimated cancer would be the driver.  Instead, Kalorama now projects that market to be $28.6 billion dollars in 2021.   That’s a huge difference; well out of line with a normal variance.  The reason is not surprising. Tests for the detection and severity of COVID-19 that continue to show high volumes in 2021.

Almost two-thirds of that is molecular tests for COVID-19, the IVD market researcher said in its latest report The Worldwide Market for Molecular Diagnostics 10th Edition (

The overall market market includes all tests for molecular targets conducted by PCR, other NAAT systems, as well as in situ hybridization and next generation sequencing that are used for a diagnostics purpose. The market figure represents revenues earned by IVD companies selling test products, instruments, reagents and directly related supplies.

Infectious disease is driving the revenues, as are cancer, and transplant diagnostics. A detailed analysis of each of these application segments is presented in the report.
Infectious disease testing segments are driven by the COVID-19 crisis (not only detection tests but related rule-out respiratory tests and HAIs).  Later in the year cancer and transplant tests will also drive revenues. The demand will come from advanced markets such as North America and Europe.

Our previous estimate of 10 BN is still important to note.  If COVID-19 testing is reduced or eliminated in the future, our previous estimate represents more of the “norm” in molecular testing.  Of course new infectious disease threats or greatly increased testing volumes could change that.