Description
In healthcare, there are 27 potential disruptors that could have a large impact on the market. This report discusses them and how they will impact markets in healthcare and pharmaceuticals:
• New US Healthcare Policies/ACA Status
• Reimbursement Changes in Europe and Other Developed Nations
• Brexit
• Emerging Countries
• Demographic Changes
• Ransomware and Blockchain Strategies
• Telemedicine
• Walk-in Clinics
• MACRA
• Empowered Consumers
• “Gig” Economy
• Value-Based Reimbursement
• Brazilian Biotech Market
• Healthcare in China
• Association Healthcare Plans
• Brazil as a Significant Pharma Player
• Technology Advances
• Physician Shortages, Advanced Nurse Surplus
• Changes in Drug Sourcing
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• IPO and Venture Investment
• And Others…
This report details current challenges and upending factors in healthcare markets globally. It also processes these developments into useful market forecasts in overall healthcare and pharmaceuticals specifically, in 18 ten-year forecast tables.
From the report:
Empowered Healthcare Consumers – The Internet has dramatically increased the availability of medical, health and wellness information for consumers in virtually all world markets. As of early 2018, almost 4 billion people used the Internet, representing over 52% of the world’s population. Usage is highest in North America and Europe, with about 90% and 80% of the population online, respectively. While just 32% of Africa is online and about 48% of Asia, these proportions are expected to increase strongly over the next several years. As a result, consumers are easily able to access:
• health and wellness information in online publications, platforms and communities;
• provider (physician, hospital, lab, insurance) websites and information.
As a result, patients are becoming better educated and informed. By learning about the availability of healthcare products and services in other areas and connecting with other providers, they are also increasing competition in the marketplace.
MACRA and Value Based Reimbursement – Also known as Quality-Based Reimbursement, VBR is a means to compensate care providers in a way that ties payments to the quality of care provided while rewarding providers for efficiency and effectiveness. It is an alternative to fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement which pays providers for services delivered based on bill charges or annual fee schedules.
The “Gig Economy” is a relatively new term that refers to the growing shift away from fulltime employment towards part time, temporary and/or project work as a means to earn income. These two forms of professional activity are structured quite differently although both forms may be utilized to perform similar functions – ie. some workers in a particular company or profession may be characterized as fulltime, while others may be legally characterized as temporary or project workers.
Increasing and Aging Populations – Over the past 50 years, the world’s population has expanded significantly and over the next decade, this growth is expected to continue. The total population expanded by 1.14% per year from 6.8 billion in 2008 to more than 7.6 billion in 2018 and is expected to exceed 8.5 billion by 2028. Greatest growth will occur in Africa at an estimated 2.55% per year, followed by Oceana at 1.43% per year and Asia at 0.94% annually.
Trump Administration Positions and New Policies -In December 2017, President Trump signed a bill repealing the Individual Mandate of the ACA beginning in 2019. The mandate is a core component of the Affordable Care Act and fines people who do not have health insurance. For tax year 2017, this fine is either 2.5% of the individual’s total household income, or $695 per uninsured adult and $347.50 per uninsured child (up to a maximum of $2,085), whichever figure is higher. But the tax bill leaves every other major component of the ACA intact.
Kalorama Analysis: Processing the 27 Factors into Market Forecasts
Kalorama Information’s Unique report takes a look at these factors and how they could impact pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. The report includes the following forecasts:
• Global Healthcare Market, 2017-2027 -Worst Case/Best Case/Most Like Case Scenario
• U.S. Healthcare Market, 2017-2027 -Worst Case/Best Case/Most Like Case Scenario
• Europe Healthcare Market, 2017-2027 -Worst Case/Best Case/Most Like Case Scenario
• Global Pharmaceutical Market, 2017-2027 -Worst Case/Best Case/Most Like Case Scenario
• U.S. Pharmaceutical Market, 2017-2027 -Worst Case/Best Case/Most Like Case Scenario
• Europe Pharmaceutical Market, 2017-2027 -Worst Case/Best Case/Most Like Case Scenario
FIND OUT MORE: https://www.kaloramainformation.com/Era-Uncertainty-Healthcare-Factors-Disrupt-11538729/
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTHE GLOBAL HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION
FACTOR ONE: GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
Global Population Growth and Aging
- Exhibit 2-1: Total Global Population by Region, 2008 – 2028, in Millions
- Exhibit 2-2: Global Population of People Age 60 and Older by Region, 2008 – 2028, in Millions
Obesity
FACTOR TWO: THE GIG ECONOMY
- Exhibit 2-3: Key Characteristics of Employment vs. Gig Workers, 2018
- Exhibit 2-4: Risks and Rewards of Employment vs. Gig Work, 2018
GLOBAL HEALTHCARE TRENDS
FACTOR THREE: RISING RATES OF DISEASE DIAGNOSIS AND TREATMENT
FACTOR FOUR: GROWING U.S. OUT OF POCKET SPENDING ON HEALTHCARE
FACTOR FIVE: ALTERNATIVE THERAPIES AND ENERGY MEDICINE
FACTOR SIX: HEALTHCARE IPO BOOM
- Exhibit 2-5: Total and Healthcare Global IPO Deal Volume, 2012 – 2017
- Exhibit 2-6: Total and Healthcare Global IPO Deal Value, 2012 – 2017, In $Billions
FACTOR SEVEN: MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS
- Exhibit 2-7: Total U.S. Healthcare M&A Deal Value, 2009 – 2017, in $Billions
- Exhibit 2-8: Selected Recent Healthcare M&A Activity
Product Launches
FACTOR EIGHT: BITCOIN AND BLOCKCHAIN
FACTOR NINE: AMAZON AND THE NEW HEALTHCARE BEHEMOTHS
FACTOR TEN: THREATS OF WAR
CHAPTER 3: KEY ISSUES: U.S.
INTRODUCTION
FACTOR ELEVEN: AFFORDABLE CARE ACT CHANGES/INDIVIDUAL MANDATE REPEAL
Individual Mandate Repeal
FACTOR TWELVE: ASSOCIATION HEALTHCARE PLANS
Total Repeal
Further Changes to the ACA
FACTOR THIRTEEN: MACRA, PAMA AND REIMBURSEMENT CHANGES
MACRA and Value Based Reimbursement
FACTOR FOURTEEN – REMOTE PATIENT MONITORING AND TELEHEALTH
FACTOR FIFTEEN: HOSPITAL PRODUCTION OF GENERIC MEDICINES
FACTOR SIXTEEN: LEGALIZATION OF MARIJUANA
- Exhibit 3-1: Current and Recently-Approved State Laws Legalizing Marijuana for Medical or Recreational Purposes, Q1 2018
-
Exhibit 3-2: Federal Penalties for Marijuana Possession, Sale, Cultivation & Paraphernalia, 2018
FACTOR SEVENTEEN 2017 TAX REFORM LEGISLATION CONSEQUENCES
FACTOR EIGHTEEN: PHYSICIAN SHORTAGE, NP SURPLUS
Physician Shortage
Advanced Practice Nurse Surplus
Older Workers
FACTOR NINETEEN: URGENT CARE AND RETAIL CLINICS
Urgent Care Centers
Retail Clinics
Other Healthcare Venues
FACTOR TWENTY: U.S. OPIOID CRISIS
FACTOR TWENTY-ONE: RANSOMWARE AND CYBERCRIME
CHAPTER 4: KEY ISSUES: EUROPE
INTRODUCTION
- Exhibit 4-1: Key Indicators: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Switzerland, Russia, 2017
Economic Rebound in the Eurozone
FACTOR TWENTY-TWO: BREXIT
FACTOR TWENTY-THREE: AUSTERITY
FACTOR TWENTY-FOUR: BAILOUT EU NATIONS: GREECE, IRELAND, PORTUGAL, SPAIN, CYPRESS
Technology Laggership in Europe
High Costs of Doing Business
CHAPTER 5: KEY ISSUES: EMERGING MARKETS
INTRODUCTION
- Exhibit 5-1: Characteristics of Tier I, II and III Players, 2017
FACTOR TWENTY FIVE: DEVELOPED NATIONS TURN TO BIOTECH
- Exhibit 5-2: Key Indicators: Tier I Countries, 2017
Growing Pharma and Biotech Industries
FACTOR TWENTY-SIX: RISE OF EASTERN EUROPE
China and India
- Exhibit 5-3: Key Indicators: Tier II Countries, 2017
Changing Disease Patterns
FACTOR TWENTY-SEVEN: CHINA/INDIA HEALTHCARE REFORM, BRAZIL PHARMA REFORM
- Exhibit 5-4: Key Healthcare Reforms and Remaining Current Gaps in China and India, 1997 – 2017
Intellectual Property Struggles
Corporate Incentives
China and India Focus on Biotech
Shift from Generics to Innovative Products
Outsourcing Boom
Tier III Countries
Brazil Pharma’s Boom
Political and Economic Instability
CHAPTER 6: HEALTHCARE MARKET FORECASTS CONSIDERING THE 28 FACTORS – BEST CASE, MODERATE CASE, WORST CASE
OVERVIEW
TOTAL HEALTHCARE MARKET FORECASTS
- Exhibit 6-1: Total Global Healthcare Market in $ Billions, Historic, Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027, in $Billions
- Exhibit 6-2: Total Global Healthcare Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
U.S. Healthcare Market
- Exhibit 6-3: Total U.S. Healthcare Market, Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027 ($BN)
- Exhibit 6-4: Total Global Healthcare Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
Europe Healthcare Market
- Exhibit 6-5: Total European Healthcare Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027 ($BN)
- Exhibit 6-6: Total European Healthcare Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
Asia Healthcare Market
- Exhibit 6-7: Total Asian Healthcare Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027($BN)
- Exhibit 6-8: Total Asian Healthcare Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
TOTAL PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET FORECASTS
- Exhibit 6-9: Total Global Pharmaceutical Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027 ($BN)
- Exhibit 6-10: Total Global Pharmaceutical Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
U.S. Pharmaceutical Market
- Exhibit 6-11: U.S. Pharmaceutical Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027 ($BN)
- Exhibit 6-12: Total U.S. Pharmaceutical Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
Europe Pharmaceutical Market
- Exhibit 6-13: European Pharmaceutical Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027 ($BN)
- Exhibit 6-14: Total European Pharmaceutical Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
Asia Pharmaceutical Market
- Exhibit 6-15: Asian Pharmaceutical Market: Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2007 – 2027 ($BN)
- Exhibit 6-16: Total Asian Pharmaceutical Market Growth for Best Case, Most Likely & Worst Case, 2017 – 2027, in $Billions
